The numbers don't lie: Matt's still my guy.

I have seen more than one Seahawks game this year. In fact if you add up all of the highlights I’ve watched, times I’ve flipped to the Seahawks game during commercial breaks during the Packers game, columns I’ve read by the great St. Ides, and blurbs on SI.com and ESPN.com, I’d say I’ve seen at least three.

This qualifies me as an expert.

In fact it says so at the top of the blog: Two guys named Steve sharing their expert opinions. Or something like that. So if I say that Matt Hasslebeck is the best quarterback in the NFL right now, you can rest assured that I didn’t just pull that out of my ass. I pulled it out of my expert ass.

Here’s what I said: "Hasslebeck has taken it to the next level. He’s the best quarterback in the game right now. I don’t care who you put up: Brady, Manning, Rothelisberger, I’ll take Hasslebeck."

If you think that’s a, well now what did our reader call it, a “fucking dumb statement”, think again…

I did a quick statistical analysis… ok that’s a lie, it took me a good hour and a half. I did a tedious statistical analysis of the aforementioned quarterbacks and although the results may be startling to the ignorant few, they were no surprise to me. Since the thought I was trying to convey was who I thought was the best QB in the game right now, I looked at the final 8 games of the season and the playoffs. Let’s break it down:

Over his last 8 games, Tom Brady posted a quarterback rating of 85.9. He threw 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while leading the Patriots to a 6 – 2 record. Brady was a bit better in the playoffs, with a 90.2 rating and 4 TDs against 2 INTs. These are respectable numbers, but when compared to Matt Hasslebeck’s they simply don’t measure up.

In his last 8 games Matt Hasslebeck posted an astonishing 106.9 quarterback rating. He threw 14 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions. He led the Seahawks to a 7-1 record, their only loss coming on the watch of their JV squad. In the playoffs the statistical advantage is even more dramatic. Hasslebeck has posted a 109.3 QB rating with 3 TDs and 0 interceptions. He’s also made plays with his legs, something that Brady could only dream about. Hasslebeck has run for 48 yards in two games, while Brady has run for 8. You’d think with those five layers of Visa protection surrounding Brady he’d have more than 8 yards, but you’d be wrong. Maybe it's time to switch to "Discover". At least he'll get some cash back.

The postulate I put forth also included Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning. Big Ben’s last 8 look like this: QB rating of 86.7, 10 TD’s and 9 INTs. Meanwhile over in Indianapolis Big Pussy put up a terrific 103.97 rating with 14 TDs and 4 INTs. Terrific numbers indeed but not as terrific as Hasslebeck’s.

Let me sum this up in terms any fucking idiot can understand: any gambler knows you don’t fuck with a hot streak, and right now there’s no one hotter than Hasslebeck. Hasslebeck has taken it to the next level. He’s the best quarterback in the game right now. I don’t care who you put up: Brady, Manning, Rothelisberger, I’ll take Hasslebeck.

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Super Bowl Week - Media Day!

Sadly, I'm actually at work today, and not at watching the non-stop coverage of Media Day. I really should have taken this whole week off just to follow all the hype. But I didn't so the best I can do is hope to rehash some of the Media Day memorable quotes and whatnot tomorrow. And for now, take a look at the QBs…

An ESPN.com poll on their front page yesterday said something like this:

Which quarterback would you rather have leading a late drive to win the game for your team?

With over 70,000 votes, the results looked something like this :
Ben Roethlisberger - 70%
Matt Hasselbeck - 30%

To me, that's absolutely insane. And it clearly shows just how unknown this Seattle team is by the masses.

Several times last season, and even at the beginning of this season, I compared Roethlisberger to a Trent Dilfer type, but one who was getting much more hype because he was a rookie and playing for a high profile club. The main point in my comparison was that Big Ben didn't do a whole lot to win games. He just managed them well enough not to lose them. He let the running game and defense do their jobs, and they did their job well. And as long as he didn't make mistakes at key times, he would not lose it for the Steelers.

Well, okay, maybe I was a bit off on that comparison. He's looked pretty good throwing the ball lately, and has, in fact, won games for the Steelers. That tackle he made on Harper as he returned the Bettis fumble in the Colts game… Well, that was huge. (Even if Harper did veer right into him. He still had to make the grab and trip him up.) So I'm saying now that he is for real, can throw the ball well, and can win games for the Steelers.

That said… this is his second year in the league, and he's still young and can be forced into mistakes. A couple of his throws against Denver probably should have been picked off. His playoff performance last year was pretty awful. He looked jittery, and overthrew receivers.

Against the Colts and Broncos, the Steelers were pretty much playing with house money. They really didn't have much pressure on them, considering they were pretty big underdogs. They had to win several games down the stretch just to make the playoffs. So, for them, they were just happy to be there. They were expected to lose. The pressure is on the other team. The Manning/Dungy/Vanderjerk choke job was a perfect example of this. The Jake Plummer choke job was another. Now, the shoe is on the other foot. The Steelers are the favorite. They have the whole ridiculous Jerome Bettis' homecoming storyline. They will likely have a significantly larger number of fans in Detroit. Almost every expert out there is picking the Steelers to win.

The Steelers are expected to win. Big Ben can't just go out there gun-slinging thinking "Screw it, nobody expects us to win, no pressure." I think he'll be jittery, and I think the Seattle defense can make him pay. And I also think that the Seahawks will generally shut down the Steelers' running game. And I think we all remember what the Seattle defense did when the Panthers were forced to throw on every damn down. If Big Ben has to win this game on his own, I just don't see him getting it done.

Predicted Roethlisberger stat line: 19/34, 253 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs

Then there's Hasselbeck. He threw 9 interceptions all year, 6 in the final 15 games. He's thrown zero in the playoffs. He's made smart decisions all season, including excellent audibles at the line. He's been in the system 5 years now. Which just happens to be exactly when Favre won his Super Bowl with Green Bay. He has led the team on several tying or winning drives in the past 3 years. This will be the 5th playoff game of his career, and his confidence is sky high right now.

Let's take a quick look at his playoff career, shall we?

2003: at Green Bay. Nobody is giving Seattle a chance in hell to win this game, especially since they barely made the playoffs. But guess what. They stick right with them. Including building up some nice momentum going into overtime. After winning the overtime coin flip, Hasselbeck said, now infamously, "We want the ball and we're going to score!" He wasn't being a dick. He was just a little over-excited and pumped up. They didn't score on the opening possession of OT. But neither did the Packers. When Seattle got the ball back, Hasselbeck made an audible at the line when he saw the pass coverage. He wanted Alex Bannister (their #4 WR who was generally used on special teams) to run one route. But Bannister screwed it up and ran the wrong way. Hasselbeck's quick pass was picked off by Al Harris, and taken the other way for a touchdown. Game over.

2004: home against the Rams. The Rams had beaten the Seahawks twice during the regular season, including a back-breaking come from behind win with Seattle up 35-17 with like 6 minutes left in the game. They had to come into Seattle to complete the three game sweep. And they did. But the blame really falls on the defense for this one, as they could not stop the Rams offense much at all. Still, with only a few minutes left, Hasselbeck rallied the troops, and marched right down the field. Inside the 10 with only seconds to spare, Hasselbeck scrambled around, avoided pressure, and threw to an open Bobby Engram. Touchdown! Tie game! Uhhhhh, except that Engram dropped the ball. Hasselbeck fell to his knees, screaming, pounding the ground, as center Robbie Tobeck tried to lift him off the ground. Tough, tough loss. But we were that catch away from taking the game to OT with all the momentum.

2005: home against the Redskins. Alexander gets knocked out with a concussion in the first half. All eyes are on Hasselbeck, as the pressure is on him now. The Redskins know it too. Yet they couldn't stop him. Time after time, he read through the progressions, found the open receiver, and made the throw. He also did a great job with audibles, including that unlikely handoff to fullback Mack Strong on 3rd and long. Strong took it for a career long 30-something yards, and that play pretty much sealed the game. Without their running game, and against a damn good defense, Hasselbeck picked them apart confidently and methodically. There was also his short scramble for a touchdown, when a couple well placed pump fakes and looks froze the defensive backs and linebackers just enough for him to sneak into the corner inside the pylon. The passing lane wasn't there, but the defenders didn't know that. Instead of forcing the ball in, a little pump fake goes a long way. I love the pump fake. I've loved it since playing two-hand touch as a youngster. Why more NFL QBs don't use it is beyond me.

2005: home against the Panthers. Really, this game goes to the defense and their coaches for stopping Steve Smith. But Hasselbeck played well, setting up the run with the pass, and not making any mistakes. It takes Alexander a little while to get started, and Hasselbeck did what he always does - led the team down the field for a score. That throw across the middle to Jerramy Stevens for the first touchdown set the tone, and Seattle never really looked back after that. He completed the passes he needed to and didn't make any mistakes.

The 65-35 ratio above baffles me. But I'll just chalk it up to people not really being aware of just how good Hasselbeck is. I think they'll find out Sunday. And although Samichlaus might have gone a little bit overboard saying he'd take Hasselbeck over any other QB in the league right now, I'd have to say he's nearly cracked the Top 3.

Here's the bottomline: he's confident, and people still don't know how good he is. I talked about pressure earlier. And there's no way Seattle and Hasselbeck feel the pressure as much as the Steelers. He's been through 2 last-second, gut-wrenching playoff losses already. He's led Seattle to two convincing playoff wins against tough defenses. His offensive line keeps him from getting pressured a lot, and his running game keeps the safeties and linebackers honest. As long as he has time to throw, and I can't imagine him not getting it, he'll pick apart the opposing defense. He's been doing just that for several seasons now. And he's just about perfected it this year.

Predicted Hasselbeck stat line: 18/26, 247 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

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Super Bowl Week!

Well, the Super Bowl hype is getting into gear this week. Woohoo! Here at good ol' SBS, we'll try and keep our readers entertained without spewing the same bullshit you read on every other site out there, but it will be tough. :P

Let's start out with a look at the running games for both teams, shall we?

Are you sick of hearing about the homecoming to Detroit by Jerome Bettis yet? Me too.
I mean, don't get me wrong, I've always respected Bettis and his abilities. He's had some impressive runs, games, and seasons throughout his career. But really, his legacy is based on two things: 1) his longevity/durability and 2) his whole career as a Steeler. He never really was the type of player to make you go "Wow!" very often. He's just stuck around a really long time on a team that generally has a "run first" offensive mentality.

Anyways, here's my point - Jerome Bettis has not won games by himself in a long time. Don't expect this to suddenly change on Sunday because it may be his last game and it just happens to be the Super Bowl in his hometown. Seattle has been excellent against the run all season long, including the playoffs. This will not change.

Predicted Bettis stat line: 14 carries, 43 yards, 0 TD.

Then there's that other guy, "Fast" Willie Parker. He may be fast, but he's young, and maybe even a little uncertain back there at times, and a little shaky. He had a fumble last week that could have been HUGE, but it rolled out of bounds. He almost coughed it up once or twice more. Not to mention that the double-back system often telegraphs what kind of play is coming - Bettis back there, look for a run inside. Parker in there, look for a speed run outside. I imagine that by watching enough film this week, Seattle will have a very good idea what plays are run with each back in there.

Predicted Parker stat line: 8 carries, 21 yards, 0 TD.

On the other side of the ball, it's up to NFL MVP Shaun Alexander to put up a big game. Keep in mind he will be an unrestricted free agent after this game, and that Seattle has agreed not to slap him with the franchise tag. After he was knocked out of the Redskins game with a concussion, all we kept hearing about was how Alexander has never had a good playoff performance. Well, you can bury that talk. He was pretty damn good last week, hitting the holes hard, breaking tackles, and making his trademark cutbacks when there's nothing there. Make no doubt though - how he performs in this single game will have a HUGE impact on his negotiating power and final contract value. This is the biggest stage, and if he steps up and plays great (or, alternatively, vanishes), it won't be forgotten.

Personally, I think he'll do just fine. And it's not necessarily because he's so dope a runner - we'll debate that plenty after this game. But it's because they'll do what they've done all season: set up the run with the pass, and let the dominant offensive line open the holes for him. The holes WILL be there eventually, and he WILL get into the secondary with a run more than once this game. Alexander knows what's at stake. Not just for his team and his own personal accomplishments as potential Super Bowl champions, but for his wallet as well.

Predicted Alexander stat line: 25 carries, 102 yards, 1 TD.

And in other news, I'm working from home today, so here's two Madden XBox simulation scores so far. ;)

First game:
Seahawks 17, Steelers 10
2 picks by Big Ben, one taken to the house by Andre Dyson.

Second game:
Sehawks 29, Steelers 14
Again, Big Ben looks jittery in the big game. This time throwing a whopping 4 interceptions (2 by Dyson).

3 picks by Andre Dyson in 2 games.. Hrmmm, could that be a sign of a big game? ;)

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Lofa to the Pro Bowl... And why Walter Jones is there

Just a real quick entry... Lofa Tatupu, the Seahawks' excellent rookie middle linebacker I've been praising since like Week 5, has been named to the Pro Bowl as a replacement for the injured Brian Urlacher. I couldn't be happier, he deserved it. Seattle center Robbie Tobeck also made the roster due to injury, putting 3 of Seattle's 5 starting offensive linemen in Hawaii. And 7 Seahawks total, tying their most ever.

And, speaking of the Seattle offensive line.... Here's a little clip of Walter Jones absolutely dominating on Sunday. His victim is Carolina defensive end Mike Rucker, generally considered a pretty darn good player.

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A Loving Tribute to Anonymous

"OK, two things. You thank all these "new readers" blah blah blah blah, but you fail to mention your ONE and only true fan on this site, who probably writes as much as you responding to every fricking column posted, regularly visiting the site 10+ times a day!so thanks for fucking NOTHING!"

Anonymous

As I read these comments this evening, I had a Terry Bradshaw moment. My eyes welled with tears. My lower lip quivered. I was headed hard and fast towards a complete Dick Vermeil because I knew the words were right on. Anonymous had called me out, and I had no defense. My lifes work sat like a Bob Slowik defense: a quivering mass of month old jello.

The time for this column is long overdue. To our fans and readers, I ask that you indulge me. To my beautiful Mrs. Samichlaus, I ask that for a moment you stand to the side and give my man his props. This, yes this, is my loving tribute to the great one "el grande nihil": Anonymous.

Anonymous came into my life on January 20th 2005. SBS was in it's infancy and frankly St. Ides and I had not yet hit stride. But Anonyomus was there, reading dilligently and encouraging us. "As always excellent" he wrote that very first time, "Everyone is agreed on the Pats, but the NFC is another thing altogether. I have to agree with Philly pick, as I think the snow will eliminate the human highlight reel, in fact it will force him to throw the ball to win (think elway arm, fielder accuracy)....it aint happening"

It's commentary like this that quickly defined Anonymous's style: quick wit and an incredible depth of insight into the sporting world.

He continued to post throughout January and February, laying down such classics as "The Dolphins are always ranked in the top 10 in defense, and the players definitely responded to him the last half of the season, so it could be a good thing." and "Sometimes bringing in a fresh perspective is exactly what the players need, something to keep them on their toes, or at least prove/tryout for their positions again, no complacency".

Wow.

But it wasn't until his third post that Anonymous became the quality guardian of SBS. "Allright its GroundHog Day already, and no one's posted anything since the 27th of Jan" When I read that comment, a tinge of guilt crept over me. Anonymous continued: "I fear I not only will have the 2 week wait for the Superbowl, but also a 2 week wait before someone posts a BLOG!! Doens't Blog mean to continuously update columns...you two are bloggin like your 100 years old! Come on, entertain me...starting blogging. TO is such a frickin tool its ridiculous." He finished with this dead on balls prediction: "And now for the FIRST Anonymous post Superbowl Prediction: Patriots 34 Eagles 13. The Pats in a romp"

Not only was Anonymous keeping the Steves honest, he was also challenging the experts at their own game. What a guy.

Anonymous contiued to post throughout February but then he fell silent. The blog suffered. St. Ides and I tried valiantly to keep up the banter, but there was no denying that the entertainment level had decreased significantly without the presense of out number one non spousal reader. We were sinking fast.

On a hot August day in 2005, Anonymous returned to SBS with guns a blazin'. "Ahhh yes, its August and with that comes the optimism that your team will be holding mr Lombardi...Ahh, if we all could be Pats fans, what a world it would be..". He was back, and I was thrilled. "...and let me be the first to welcome back our other reader and my personal favorite Pats fan, Anonymous. Also let me be the first to offer you congratulations on the Super Bowl victory in Detroit. Christ, enough already." On and on I shamlessly gushed.

This season has been Anonymous's penultimate. Who could forget his now classic admonsihing of the great Juicy Fruiter: "That might have been the WORST blog I have ever seen...thanks JF for not only causing me to click your link, but making me stupider in the process." Who amongst us didn't share his anguish when his beloved Patroits were eliminated from the playoffs: "Fuck everyone! FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK. Did I mention FUCK! not used.....tooo...LOSING! FUCK the broncos were a bunch of chumps and FUCKING GAVE them the game, we should been hosting the FUCKING Steelers. FUCK!!!!
I hate everyone, but will be rooting for the seahawks - but boy, Carolina is gonna be tough - best defense is kill steve smith Did I mention FUCK...this sucks donkey ass"

I couldn't have said it better myself.

But Anonymous isn't just about sports. He has also shared his insights into fatherhood when he spun this tale of potty training: "Wow - i missed alot. I took some time off from the computer and just about everything. Decided to give potty training to my son the ol college try - boy does that suck balls. My house turned into a kitty litter. you'd think you'd be pretty upset about hanging out in soiled & saturated underpants..but NOOOOOO, apparently, it can be very comfortable when the potty is the devil."

Don't worry fans, SBS isn't becomming a "Lifetime" blog. Anonymous wouldn't have it.

One final thought: many months ago I paid Anonymous the ultimate complement. I imagine he has forgotten my words, so I'd like to remind everyone: "Let me guess, you're a Pats fan? I don't know much about you, but assuming I'm right, you're a fan of one of the best NFL teams ever, and you have a wife that watches football with you. Nice. God probably gave you a big dick while he was at it."

Here's to Anonymous. A loyal reader, a smart and funny man with an enormous penis.

We love you man

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The Golden Ticket

As if I needed any more reason to be excited about the Seahawks being in the Super Bowl in less than two weeks. My friend Dar called me on Monday night, and reminded me of something I had totally forgotten...

The conversation went something like this:

Dar: "Hey, congrats on the Seahawks making the Super Bowl! You still have that ticket?"
Me: "Hey, thanks! Yeah, I've got it around here somewhere." (At this point, I'm thinking he means the ticket stub from a Giants-Seahawks game he took me too last year.)
Dar: "Well, it's worth some money now."
Me: "Huh?" (Wondering how a ticket stub from a year ago could be worth money suddenly, with the thought of maniacs on eBay buying everything in sight flashing through my head.)
Dar: "You know, the Vegas ticket?"
Me: "Oh shit! That's right!"

So that's when I remembered something I probably forgot about a week after it happened. Dar was in Vegas last February on business, and while he was in one of the casinos, he picked up a bet ticket for me. You know, it was just a nice friendly gesture while he was looking at the odds for next year's Super Bowl.

So I'm suddenly wracking my brain, trying to remember where the hell I would have put it. I surely haven't seen it in a long time, maybe even since the day he gave it to me almost a full year ago. So I think, "Okay, maybe I never took it out of my wallet?" Sure enough, folded in half and tucked neatly in a corner of my wallet, there it is:

VENETIAN
$10.00 Straight Bet
Superbowl XL 2005-2006
3014 SEAHAWKS
35/1 MLB
Event Date 2/6/06
Win $350.00 to pay $360.00
Ticket Cost $10.00
09Feb2005 20:00:18

So there you have it. Odds were at a whopping 35-1 at the time. $350 if Seattle wins. Nice little extra bonus if they do win. Oh, and February 9th, the day the ticket was originally bought, is my birthday. Maybe that'll be the extra little magic touch to make this the lucky ticket and lead Seattle to victory? We can only hope. ;) Mad props and thanks to Dar for the ticket!

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I really wish I had more time for this….

The very first blog I ever wrote began with the following statement: “I really don’t like to write”. Well, that’s not true. What I actually said was “I love my wife and I really don’t like to write”. Something like that. You can look at our archive file if you’d like to read it, in fact I encourage you to do so. Especially our new readers who I would like to thank.

First of all, a special thanks to Mike Barer who posted here the other day. Mike, I have no idea who you are but (and let me assure you I speak for myself and St. Ides) thanks for stopping by and participating. We don’t get a lot of visitors here, and the ones who usually show up are either (a) spammers or (b) of the "short bus special" variety. OK, that was a direct shot at “Juicy Fruiter”.

Second of all, I would like to thank Karen & Co. for becoming a regular reader. Karen, who shares a first name with my wife, met Mrs. Samichlaus on a chick chat board. I think it was either menstrualchannel or constantblabber, I always get them confused. Karen is a terrific writer and she’s smart as a whip too. St. Ides and I welcome you to our sports blog!

So, as I was saying, the very first blog I ever wrote began with the following statement: “I really don’t like to write”. Well, that’s not true. What I actually said was “I love my wife and I really don’t like to write”. Something like that. You can look at our archive file if you’d like to read it, in fact I encourage you to do so. However I’ve changed my opinion. I do like to write. A lot. It’s the typing that I can’t stand.


I started this blog at 9:00. It’s now 9:49 and I haven’t even gotten to the sports part. It’s awful. It’s bad enough that I didn’t get home from work until 7:45, frantically cooked beef stroganoff and red cabbage for dinner, prepared for a call from a recruiter at 8:30, steamed for a good half hour when I realized the sorry son of a bitch wasn’t going to call, and sat down at the computer to blog, only to realize that I haven’t spent enough time with my wife oh and the goddamn dog keeps begging for treats. It takes me to too long to type. I’m terrible at it. And don’t ask me why I chose a career that requires me to sit in front of a keyboard most of the day. I can’t explain it.

Mrs. Samichlaus and I watched the Seahawks game on Sunday. I haven’t seen the Steelers / Broncos yet, but I have it Tivo’d. The Seahawks game was awesome, and it played out exactly as I thought it would (I predicted a 34 – 10 Seahawks victory, thanyouverymuch). Let’s see if I can remember all of my thoughts…

1. It’s got to be tough to be Matt Hasslebeck. He’s having a career year, yet there were at least four mentions of Brett Favre during the broadcast. The truth is Favre hasn’t looked as good as Hasslebeck looked in a loooooong time.

2. Hasslebeck has taken it to the next level. He’s the best quarterback in the game right now. I don’t care who you put up: Brady, Manning, Rothelisberger, I’ll take Hasslebeck.

3. Was I right about Delhomme? The guy telegraphs every pass and Seattle was all over it. The second interception was priceless. Delhomme was looking right, looking right, looking further right (at his hand I believe) then looking at another interception.

4. When the game began, Carolina’s defense was flying all over the place. They were playing fantastic defense, but it didn’t matter. Seattle still moved the ball against them with ease. After the first few plays I concluded that Carolina was pretty much fucked.

5. Steve Smith is a pretty intense guy. I wish he played for Green Bay. But correct me if I’m wrong: didn’t he seem a bit whiney?

6. Another unfortunate Green Bay comparison: Seattle reminds me so much of the 1996 Packers. It’s a pleasure to watch. They run the purest form of the Midwest coast offense, setting running backs in the split formation, running seam passes and slants. It really reminded me what a well coached team looks like.

7. That Shawn Alexander guy is pretty good. Where y’all been hiding him?

8. Seattle’s defense is a heck of a group. They’ve shut down every team they’ve faced in the playoffs and I can’t imagine that Pittsburgh is going to challenge them, what with that Trent Dilfer wannabe at quarterback.

9. Brain fart. Nothing to type here. Moving right along.

10. I didn’t watch the post game so I missed the Terry Bradshaw thing. However my wife said something that rang true when the game was over. She remarked “Now don’t you wish you had Steve’s home phone number?” She was right, I wished I did.

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Super Bowl Bound!

Seahawks baby! What a game, what a win. And somehow, Seattle is a 3 and a half point underdog for the Big Game. Go figure.

Football psychology isn't really that difficult. Really, it's not. You need a coach with some brains, and players who listen to the coach...

Exhibit A: Mike Holmgren.
After the ridiculous two games Carolina wide receiver Steve Smith had coming into yesterday's game, all you saw everywhere was Steve Smith Steve Smith SteveSmith STEVESMITH stevesmith. "Experts" were picking the Panthers to win with the sole explanation being "Nobody can stop Steve Smith." "Oh really?" thinks Holmgren and his coaching staff. "Okay, let's play along." All week long, all anybody from Seattle said when asked about Steve Smith was "He's a great player, he's having a great season." and "Wow, he's good, ain't he? I don’t know how we can stop him, but we'll try." I actually watched the Seattle press conference on the NFL Network, and was thinking to myself, "Wow, they're kissing Steve Smith's ass. Smart, smart move." You see, it's like the reverse jinx. Talk about how great an opposing player is, and he starts to get a little suspicious. In fact the media hyping up Steve Smith was the best thing that could have happened to Seattle. I mean, it didn't take a genius to figure out that the defensive gameplan should be "Stop Steve Smith and make the rest of the offense beat us." This ass-kissing reverse jinx was capped off before the game, when Mike Holmgren went up to Mr. Smith and told him, "You're a great player. You're having a hell of a season."

This is not the typical reaction to the best player on the opposing team. The typical treatment is to trash talk about how so-and-so is not so good, or didn't put up those huge games against THIS team, or basically call him names. Providing "bulletin board material" is the general MO of NFL teams, particularly in the playoffs. The only thing that came close leading up to this game was from Carolina, when safety Mike Minter said that the only way Seattle stops Steve Smith is by hiring a hitman. Guess what, Mike. They didn't need a hitman. Just some good old-fashioned reverse psychology and triple coverage.

The final numbers:
Steve Smith: 5 catches, 33 yards, 1 lost fumble, 1 TD (on that questionably called punt return)
Seneca Wallace (who is the Seahawks backup QB, by the way): 1 catch, 28 yards - only 5 yards fewer than Smith.

Maybe now people will start to believe me when I say our defense is good. Damn good. The only reason we ranked so low in yardage allowed is because we were ahead big in so many games and teams got a ton of yardage in garbage time. Same thing yesterday. Yes, the Panthers completed some passes late in the game including that fairly deep touchdown catch, but the game was pretty much over and we were in prevent mode.

Lofa Tatupu should have won Defensive Rookie of the Year, and cemented that argument yesterday. He finished second to San Diego's Shawne Merriman, basically because everybody was kissing the Chargers' heiney all season and he had more sacks. Here's some more stats:

Lofa Tatupu: 104 tackles (led the team), 4 sacks, 3 ints, 6 pass deflections, 1 fumble recovery
Shawne Merriman: 57 tackles, 10 sacks, 0 ints, 4 pass deflections, 2 forced fumbles

And Lofa was calling defensive plays and alignments as of Week 4. Don't get me wrong, Merriman is very good. But Tatupu was better and meant more to his team.

And I wasn't going to say it, but Troy Aikman said it after the game, so I can say it now - this Seattle team is pretty young still, especially on defense. They can be good for several years.

Hell of a game by Alexander and Hasselbeck. Alexander shook off the concussion and all the talk about never having it gotten it done in the postseason. Hasselbeck just gave writers everywhere more material with the inevitable comparisons to Favre that we'll see for the next two weeks.

I only had two gripes with the game:

1) The officiating. Horrendous yet again. It wound up not mattering, but picking up the flag on that Steve Smith punt return was ridiculous. Did John Fox somehow slip into a referee outfit while nobody was looking (a la Frank Drevin in Naked Gun) and talk them into reversing that call? That made the game 17-7. As my dad said when I called him screaming moments later, "The refs look at the scoreboard. They shouldn't, but they do." If the game was closer at that point, no way do they pick up that flag. I mean, what was that conversation like?

Referee #1: "We got an illegal block in the back, #50."

Referee #2: "Oh, I saw that. He didn't really mean to do it. He kinda pulled up after he blocked the guy. Sorta."

Referee #1: "Huh? He pushed him in the back. The guy could have made the tackle if he didn't do it. That's a penalty."

Referee #2: "Well, yeah. But come on. It's 17-0! Cut them a break. It wasn't really illegal, was it?"

Referee #1: "Shit, it's 17-0 already? Well we don't want a complete blowout. Okay, you're right, it wasn't illegal. I'll pick up my flag."

Un-frickin-believable. There were some other bad calls, on both sides of the ball, but thankfully it didn't decide the game. In the post-game press conference, a reporter asked Hasselbeck about that play. His response was something like, "Well, I don't think I can comment on that, or I'll get in trouble. But basically we felt like they got a gift. But that's okay, championship teams overcome things like that. Steve Smith is a great player, it was a great play, it got their team back into it, and we had to keep scoring." Good answer.

And speaking of the post-game.. Gripe #2…

2) Terry Bradshaw. Doing the on-field interviews and trophy presentation. Are you kidding me? For those of you who didn't watch it (and Anonymous informed me only fans of the winning team actually watch the post-game stuff, which I knew), it went something like this… First, Terry Bradshaw introduces Paul Allen, owner of the Seahawks and co-founder of a little software company you might have heard of called Microsoft. Bradshaw starts the conversation, "So, first I have to ask you… I'm having a problem with my email, can you help me?" To which a confused Allen thinks to himself "Who put this clown up here with me?" before replying, "Uhhhhh, sure, I can help you with that." A few minutes later, Bradshaw introduces Matt Hasselbeck by putting one arm around his shoulder and then rubbing his bald head, saying, "Hey, it's okay you're bald! I'm bald too! Bald is cool! Bald guys rule!" or something ridiculous like that. I think I saw the other players nearby visibly cringing. It was an awkward and borderline gay moment. (Does anybody know if Bradshaw is married by the way? Maybe he is gay?) And last but not least, he asked Shaun Alexander if he'd be there next year. Come on Terry. This is not the place for that question. Shaun answered as best he could, "I hope so. I want to be back. We'll see what happens. We got one more game to win though!" Fucking Terry Bradshaw. As the post-game ceremonies started, I thought to myself, "Shit, I should be taping this." As they ended, I was like, "God, I'm glad I didn't tape that. Hopefully all the commerative DVDs will edit that out."

And here's something that has bugged me for awhile. As a long-time hockey fan, I'm well aware of the long standing tradition of the NHL champions skating around the ice hoisiting the Stanley Cup, passing it from player to player. It's a great tradition, and when the Rangers did it in 1994, it gave me goosebumps. Somewhere along the line, I'd say in the past 5 years or so, other sports tried to rip it off. Teams started carrying their championship trophies around the stadium. Sometimes passing it around, sometimes not. They don't seem to know what they're doing with it. It's like they're being told to do it by the NFL Secret Service and the TV executives standing around them. This was no more obvious (and almost painful to watch) than with Seattle. While on the podium, Paul Allen hoisted the NFC Championship Trophy, then Mike Holmgren, then Matt Hasselbeck, and then Shaun Alexander. Then someone whispered in Alexander's ear "Okay Shaun, start walking it around the stadium," which he did, but wasn't really sure why or where he was going. At one point he tried handing it off to Pro Bowl offensive lineman Steve Hutchinson, who basically looked at him and said something like, "I don't want to carry that thing around. Keep it." I think he even tried passing it off once or twice more (the camera shot was moving around a lot), but found no takers. Finally, someone directed him to the end zone, since, like, you know, he scores a lot of touchdowns. So I'll say this once, and I'm sure not the last time - sports that are not hockey, please stop with the lame, scripted, poorly executed, walk the trophy around like the Stanley Cup rip-off. It doesn't work.

And last, but not least, I meant to come up with a checklist for beating the Panthers, but forgot. Anyways, here's what it would have looked like:

Put like 3 guys on Steve Smith at all times - Check.
Pressure Jake Delhomme - Check.
Stop the Panthers mediocre running game - Check.
Abuse former Seahawk cornerback Ken Lucas as least once - Check. (He was the one burnt on that catch by backup QB Seneca Wallace)
Get the ball to tight end Jeramy Stevens - Check.
Make sure Steve Smith doesn't make any big plays - Check. (Dubious punt return for a touchdown aside.)
Pound the wounded Julius Peppers until he loses the will to live - Check.
Get a big game from Lofa Tatupu, who deserved to win Defensive Rookie of the Year - Check.
Did I mention all we really have to do on defense is stop Steve Smith? - Check.
Don't get too conservative on offense if we have a lead late - Check. (Though the lead was big enough to get conservative.)
Get decent officiating so the refs don't cost us the game - Well, maybe not a check here, but we won anyways.

Anyways, to the Super Bowl we go! Two weeks to wait though, so expect the analysis to come in small steady doses. Go Seahawks!

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Packers tab Wallace, Fester as coaches

In a shocking and almost inexplicable move that defies any football logic, the Green Bay Packers have signed fictional characters Marsellus Wallace and Uncle Fester as assistant coaches. Wallace who last appeared in Pulp Fiction will be coaching linebackers while the beloved Uncle Fester of Adams Family fame will be responsible for special teams.

As a Packer fan I have to say I was initially surprised at the choices, but upon further review the absolute brilliance of these choices are revealed. Let’s break it down in this Samichlaus exclusive:


















Wallace: One Mean Mofo











Fester: What the fuck?
















Marsellus Wallace: Linebackers coach.

Wallace has a killer reputation. He brings an organized, disciplined and “tough guy” approach to coaching. He is experienced and successful at his job, and has consistently improved his linebackers abilities to steal the ball, a glaring weakness under the previous linebacker coach. When asked about the current group of linebackers in Green Bay, Marsellus replied “We’re pretty fucking far from okay”. Marsellus also believes in playing younger players such as Nick Barnett and Robert Thomas. “You see, this profession is filled to the brim with unrealistic motherfuckers”, said Marsellus, “Motherfuckers who thought their ass would age like wine. If you mean it turns to vinegar, it does. If you mean it gets better with age, it don't.” He also suggested that Ted Thompson should draft more aggressive players “What now? Let me tell you what now. I'ma call a coupla hard, pipe-hittin' (epitaph deleted), who'll go to work on the homes (opposing players) here with a pair of pliers and a blow torch. You hear me talkin', hillbilly boy? (editors note: he was probably addressing Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporter Cliff Cristl) I ain't through with you by a damn sight. I'ma get (linebackers who will go) medieval on your ass.” When asked how he might persuade Thompson on personnel, Wallace suggested that he would consult with former Packers G.M. Ron Wolf: “I'm on the motherfucker. Go back in there, chill them out and wait for the Wolf who should be coming directly”

Uncle Fester: Special Teams Coach

Not since the days of Fritz Shurmer have the Packers had a more creative coach than Uncle Fester. Fester is known for his unusual formations and trick plays, an ideal candidate for the Packers anemic special teams. Although considered too old in some coaching circles, Fester (who is reportedly several hundred years old) brings a wealth of experience to a young undisciplined team. I fully expect fester to bring his wizardry to Green Bay and to work his magic on an otherwise pedestrian group. Sadly though, I was unable to find any quotes from the reclusive Fester who is undoubtedly concocting special teams plays in his basement as we speak

In other Packer News, head coach Mike McCarthy has agreed to relinquish his role as “Mr. Cellophane” on the touring version of the Broadway musical “Chicago” to devote his full time and energy to coach the Green Bay Packers.



Packers Coach Mike McCarthy as "Mr. Cellophane"

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Conference Picks (Half of them at least) UPDATED!!!

By popular demand, here are the picks for the Conference Championships. (Expect Samichlaus' picks soon.)

OK kids, Samichlaus here on a Saturday morning, working furiously to get my picks in. Thank you Mr. St. Ides for keeping this blog going while work, interviewing, and an out of commission wife keep me busy busy busy. I have added my picks below....

Soooo, we're down to the Final Four! And guess what, the Colts and Patriots are nowhere to be found! (Which has to give the NFC representative a better shot at winning it all, right?) Anyways, on to the picks...

Samichlaus
Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 5-3

St. Ides
Last Week: 0-4
Playoffs: 4-4

BRONCOS -3.5 over Steelers
Yes, the Steelers have looked impressive. Yes, they disrupted Peyton Manning and the Colts offense last week. But, come on, this is a Manning we're talking about. "Playoff Choke" is Peyton's middle name. Peyton Playoff Choke Manning. Sounds about right. In any case, Jake Plummer is no Peyton Manning. Uhhhhmm, what the fuck did I just say? Here's the thing though - as good as Peyton may be, and the huge numbers he puts up, have you ever seen a quarterback who's sacked so easily? I mean, once the pressure gets to him, all they have to do is basically blow on him and he goes down. If he's not rolling out on a designed play action, he has like zero mobility to get out of the pocket and away from pressure. The Chargers pressured him and beat the Colts to kill their unbeaten season, and the Steelers repeated the forumla to send them golfing. As much as everybody (including myself) has been anxiously awaiting a Jake Plummer meltdown, it hasn't happened. And the main reason it hasn't happened is because he hasn't really had to force things late and win the games for them. The running game and defense usually stakes them to a decent lead, and Plummer does just enough not to mess it up. Which is a big improvement for him, no doubt. The Steelers are the popular pick this week, which is why I think they suffer a letdown. Keep in mind before this season, Cowher hadn't won a playoff game in a row. He tries to make it three this weekend in Denver, where the Broncos are unbeaten this year. I just don't think they'll play like they did last week. Broncos 26, Steelers 20.

The Steelers have been put in the unenviable position of having to win three road games in a row to make it to the Super Bowl. Their run has certainly been impressive but the run comes to an end this week. I can not think of a better home team than Denver. Maybe it’s an acclimation to the thin air (could this be the real reason John Elway became famous for fourth quarter comebacks?) or maybe it’s the crowds. I can’t explain it. Denver’s success against the Patriots came because they were able to stop the run and get pressure on Tom Brady. The Steelers are primarily a running team, and their best chance of winning is to come out fast and furious. However, I don’t see it happening. Here’s how it will play out: this will be a close game at half time. The Steelers might even have a slight lead. But in the second half, Denver will open it up. The Steelers will wear down in the thin Colorado air. That fat slob Jerome Bettis won’t be able to breath effectively killing any chance Pittsburgh might have had. Denver wins it 27 - 20

Panthers +3.5 over SEAHAWKS
The "reverse jinx" has worked well with me and Seattle all season. I pick against them (with the spread at least.. I often pick them to win the game outright, but not cover, like last weekend), and they win. So the question is do I continue with the pattern that has worked, and be all superstitious about it? Or do I go with what I really feel, that they will shut down Steve Smith and win this game and cover? Well, who am I to screw with the karma of the cosmos? Reverse jinx it is! But here's what I really think - I think Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme have single-handedly gotten the Panthers this far. Throw in some inexcusable defensive plans by Chicago and Tampa Bay to leave him in single (or no) man coverage, and there must have been a dozen articles on Steve Smith this week. Does anybody really think they are going to let this guy beat them? I mean, really? If you're the Seattle coaching staff, do you or do you not say, "Okay, win or lose, we need to shut down this Smith guy. I don't care if we have to put our whole frickin secondary on him, we can't let him beat us. Let's see what Nick Goings and Ricky Proehl can do against us if we give them some room. But do NOT let Steve Smith get open." The Bears defense got cocky last week, and they paid for it. The Seahawks defense is still not getting the respect it deserves. They absolutely throttled the Skins last weekend, and if it weren't for turnovers and that freaky TD catch by Moss that deflected off the defender, they could have easily been shut out. "Oh, but the Redskins offense sucks" the critics say. Whatever. This Seattle defense is pretty good, and they have a bit of a chip on their shoulder now. They can and will get to Delhomme with a 4 man rush. They are excellent against the run, with Tiki still being the only back to rush for over 100 yards all season, and it took OT for him to break 100. You think Nick Goings is going to run wild on them? Yes, maybe he's better than your typical 3rd stringer, but please. Anyways, Alexander is healthy enough to play after last week's concussion, and he has to have some extra motivation too. This is still his contract year. Getting the rushing title and TD record will help his value, but disappearing in the playoffs will hurt it. Badly. He's done nothing in his playoff career. The Seahawks proved last week they can win without him (which also lowers his value a bit). Hasselbeck absolutely tore up the Redskins secondary. Supposedly the Panthers corners are better, including former Seahawk Ken Lucas. I liked Lucas. He was a pretty solid corner for us, until his contract year. Then he turned it up a notch, put up stealler numbers, and bolted for a huge contract this past offseason. Seattle didn't want to pay him as much, and replaced him with two corners instead - Andre Dyson and Kelly Herndon - who have performed fine, though they've each had some injury issues over the course of the season. But Lucas is not invulnerable. He's definitely beatable deep (and Darrell Jackson and Hasselbeck seemed to find their deep ball groove last weekend), and commits way to many interference calls. I'm sure the Seahawks know this. They will go after him, and you can bet he'll get flagged at least once. Bank it. Anyways, as tough as the Panthers look and as many criticisms the media can find with Seattle, I think this could be our year. But I'm going to say we don't cover. You know, just in case there's something to this reverse jinx thing. Seahawks 27, Panthers 24.

You’re making this easy for me you superstitious beer drinking fool.

Some times a team / player plays a game that exorcizes the demons of their past. Seattle and Matt Hasslebeck had a game like that last week. Indeed, to win without the services of the NFL MVP was proof enough, but to watch Hasslebeck take the team on his shoulders during the second half of the game was truly a site to see. This was a coming of age story for Hasslebeck, a game where he established himself amongst the elite players in the game. Now, St. Ides might disagree with me. He might argue that Hasslebeck has been doing it all season, or at least during the second half of the season. Come to think of it, St. Ides did make that point in an earlier post. My point is last week Hasslebeck got to do it on a national stage for every one to see. You don’t go back after a game like that. On the other side of the ball, I want you to watch Jake Delhomme. Count the times during the course of the game that Delhomme looks off a defender, or does a check down. I’ll be surprised if the number is greater than five. The reason Steve Smith puts up such great numbers is that Delhomme has absolutely no ability to do second and third reads. Seattle knows this, and will be prepared. Seattle 34 Carolina 10.

Also, I'm doing the Madden XBox thing again. (These predictions went 2-2 last week, better than I did...) Here's what happened:

Steelers 28, Broncos 21
Yep, they had the old Jake Plummer in there all right. 2 horrible interceptions. Meanwhile, Jerome Bettis led the Steelers attack with 134 yards and 2 touchdowns. Not sure the Bus has quite that much mileage left in the tank, and Tatum Bell matched his 100+ effort for the Broncos. This sort of high scoring game with Plummer blowing it could be exactly on the mark.

Seahawks 20, Panthers 3
A 61-yard TD pass from Hasselbeck to Jackson early in this one set the tone. And on the ensuing Panthers possession, safety Michael Boulware picked off a Jake Delhomme pass intended for Steve Smith and took it back for the score. 14 points in about 10 seconds pretty much had the Panthers playing from behind the whole game, and they could not get anything sustained on offense. Grant Wistrom played a monster game with 3 sacks, including a key one late on 4th down inside the Seattle 10.

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0 for 4 on Picks, And Still Smiling

That's right, I got all 4 of my picks wrong this past weekend. But I don't really care, since Seattle won and is now one win away from the Super Bowl. The media is all over the Panthers' peepee right now, and most aren't giving Seattle a chance, but that's fine with me...

Sunday afternoon, when I first started thinking about writing something on this weekend, I was going to talk about how awful the refs were all weekend long. But you know what, everybody else is doing that story, so I'll skip it.

If you told me Seattle would give the ball away 3 times and lose Shaun Alexander in the first quarter, I'd say "Yep, they'll lose that." I was even preparing myself for the loss as the wheels seemed to almost come off a few times, most notably on the horrible punt returns. This guy, Jimmy Williams, has been doing this ALL FUCKING YEAR. He calls a fair catch when he has 10 yards of room, but doesn't when 2 guys are bearing down on him from 3 steps away. He catches punts on a bounce (which is always dangerous) , and lets the ball go when he clearly shouldn't. I have no idea how he's still returning punts. And then there's the easy muffs on balls that hit him in the chests. He's been awful. And if he's back there again next Sunday, he better damn well have instructions on how to properly field punts.

Anyways, Hasselbeck and Jackson had a great game, and the defense showed that they are not as "average" as some numbers indicate and even more talking heads claim they are. More on the Seattle-Carolina matchup later this week, but I'll just say I was happy with 90% of what I saw out of the Seahawks (and 9% of what I didn't like was on special teams). I'm proud of the team, and think they have a real shot to win it all.

Quick thoughts on the other games:
Manning chokes. Again. (Maybe I'll just copy and paste those two short sentences and use them for the next 10 years. First name is not needed, both Eli and Peyton will fit the description for the forseeable future.) The refs tried to hand the Colts that game, and then Bettis almost did. Lots of people are giving Big Ben mad props for the tackle on the fumble recovery. Yes, he deserves some credit, but consider these two things: 1) Harper (who had been stabbed in the knee by his wife the night before) looked like he couldn't decide what to do. It looked like he was even considering a lateral with how he was looking behind him and zig zagging.. If he simply runs full speed down the sideline like most defenders know to do (ie, Champ Bailey), he scores. And 2) if Ben misses him, there were several Steelers in pursuit who looked to have a decent angle on him given his ridiculous tapdancing on the return. Someone else would have caught him. In any case, the Colts deserved to lose, and Manning just brought some more bad karma upon himself by blaming the offensive line protection after the game. Did you hear Brady blaming the loss on anybody? I didn't.

Pats blow it. Well, the refs cost them dearly in this one. That pass interference call was awful. And might single-handedly create a large push to institute instant replay on interference calls. I, for one, would be all for it. With the unlimited yardage assessed on these calls, they can and do effect the outcome of games. The sticking point of replay, however, would be could they challenge bad non-calls? Or just bad calls? Anyways, hell of a play by Watson running down Bailey from behind, and although that call was tough to overturn from the replay, I think it did go through the end zone. If the refs call it that way, the call probably stands as well. That was Don Beebe-esque.

And last, but not least... my bad for underestimating Rex Grossman. He actually looked pretty good. Unfortunately, the Bears defense forgot to cover some guy by the name of Steve Smith. I don't think too many people would have guessed the Bears would put up 20+ points at home and lose. So much for the under. Horrible coaching job for the Bears. How do they not have this guy double-teamed the whole game? Hopefully Seattle is watching this tape and double-teams him all game. Maybe even triple teams him. We did a pretty good job shutting down Santana Moss this past weekend, and need to do it again. (Yes, Moss had over 100 yards, but most of those came on a late bomb against the prevent, and that wacky 20 yard TD catch that riccocheted off the defender's hands and helmet. He was pretty much a non-factor.)

Soooo, we're down to the Final Four.. and the Colts and Patriots are nowhere to be found.. Suddenly, I like Seattle's chances to win it all..

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Mikey and Mikey and Teddy and Ted

I had this really funny idea for a blog last Monday. I was going to write the headline “Marcus Vick charged with New Years Day massacre in Richmond”, and then tell the story how after being convicted of contributing to the delinquency of a minor, having numerous traffic violations, being kicked off the Virginia Tech football team for conduct detrimental to the team and being arrested the following day for brandishing a firearm, the police had charged Marcus Vick with the brutal slaying of the Harvey family on New Years Day, a crime so heinous that it made the national news.

Boffo stuff, huh?

Well, my sense of better judgment got the better judgment of me and I decided it was too soon to make light of the horrific slaying of the Harvey family, in fact questioning if there is ever enough time to make light of a horrific slaying, unless of course we’re talking about Dan Devine’s dog. By the time I had decided that I could write something about Vick (while politely leaving the poor Harvey family out of the discussion) Sportspickle.com had already written “Marcus Vick arrested for Nazi war crimes”. The sports humor business is a tough one, fans. You snooze you lose.

So I’ve decided to write about the Packers instead.

I have to say, I was disappointed in the firing of Mike Sherman. I actually liked the big lummox. Sherman was from what I could tell, a good man. He was smart, had a good sense of humor, and was organized. He ran a disciplined football team and held each player accountable for his actions, well, except for his quarterback now that I think about it. In fact his quarterback seemed to run a bit hog wild this year, or was I just imagining that? I digress.

If the Packers season were a game of 5 card draw, then Sherman was dealt a shitty hand loaded with lots of low cards of different suits by GM Ted Thompson. As his cards were discarded by injury or loss to free agency, Thompson replenished them with the likes of Will Whitiker and Adrian Klemm, the equivalent of being dealt the 3 of clubs and the 6 of hearts. By the way Anonymous, that gambling reference was just for you. When the Packers were down to three wide receivers, Thompson chose not to sign Koren Robinson (who was available) but rather signed a tight end named Tory Humphry. The only, and I mean only decent replacement Thompson found was Samkon Gado, who became a good player under the tutelage of Sherman and running backs coach Edgar Bennett.

Most important in defense of Sherman, his players never gave up on him. There were never any grumblings in the press by “an unnamed source” wanting more playing time or looking to critique the head coaches play calling abilities. The Packers to a man stood by their coach, and gave him an emotional ovation when he said goodbye. I was sad when I read that.

The Packers were blown out once this season. Every other game they played they were in it to the end. They just didn’t have the horses. Whether it was the defense giving up that one big play, or the offensive line that was, well, offensive at times, they just kept coming up short. As Donald Rumsfeld once said “You go to war with the army you have, not the army you want”. What that has to do with Mike Sherman and the Packers I’m not really sure. I just thought it would be a good segue. I don’t like Donald Rumsfeld very much and I don’t think I like Ted Thompson very much either.

I have an innate distrust for people named Ted. Historically they come across as soft buffoons. Ted Baxter, Ted McGinley, Ted the pilot in those “Airplane” movies, all characters in my life who have been placed there for comic relief. Even Ted Kennedy cracks me up at times. Teddy Roosevelt was a pretty flipped out dude but he was a Theodore who went by Teddy. No one ever called him Ted Roosevelt, and it’s probably a good thing. Roosevelt is a remarkable historical character, particularly in leading what he called the "strenuous life". During his tenure in the White House, he boxed voraciously, even practiced judo with a visiting Japanese team, and took friends and colleagues on long hikes. I imagined the hero of San Juan Hill probably would have strangled any fool who had the audacity to call him Ted with his bare hands.

Ted Thompson selected Mike McCarthy to be the next head coach. I was rooting for Jim Bates. Bates who is 59 was so sure that he would get the job deliberately put off other teams that were courting him. From all accounts he did an amazing presentation for Thompson, laying out his plan for life with and without Brett Favre. He explained his offensive vision, listing several candidates for offensive coordinator. His defensive players loved him. So why not select him? The best explanation I can come up with is because that what Teds do. They get themselves into positions of authority and then fuck everything up. Just watch any rerun of the Mary Tyler Moore show and tell me if Ted Baxter doesn’t fuck something up at some point. Go to “Jumptheshark.com” and discover the effect that Ted McGinley has on TV shows. Then go to Packers.com and watch five minutes of Ted Thompson. Tightwad Ted. Terminal Ted. He’s about as compelling as watching a casket warp.

But I tell you what: if this McCarthy guy works out, I’ll start calling him Theodore.

Roosevelt: A giant amongst Teds

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Last Minute Madden XBox Predictions

So I ran all of this weekend's games simulated on XBox Madden 06. Here were the results...

Seahawks 23, Redskins 21

A steady diet of Shaun Alexander, and not giving up any huge plays going the other way. Watching some of this game, I'm still annoyed with the awful offensive play-calling by the computer. (On 2nd and goal from the 2, they tried two passes... both incomplete... settled for a field goal.) The Skins had a chance to win it with a 55-yard field goal attempt by John Hall with 14 seconds left. He hit the left upright. How's that for poetic justice after that happening to Seattle in Week 4? :)

Hasselbeck: 11/24, 146 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 44.8 QB Rating
Brunell: 9/19 , 112 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 61.7 QB Rating

Alexander: 23 rushes, 167 yards, 7.2 average, 1 TD, Long 59
Portis: 17 rushes, 121 yards, 7.1 average, 1 TD, Long 21

Engram: 6 catches, 66 yards, 1 TD
Jackson: 3 catches, 63 yards
Moss: 2 catches, 31 yards
Cooley: 3 catches, 18 yards

Lewis: 5 tackles, 1 sack
Dyson: 4 tackles, 1 INT
Arrington: 6 tackles, 2 tackles for loss
Springs: 5 tackles, 1 INT

Patriots 23, Broncos 8

The Broncos offense never got going, as Plummer was pressured all game, and their running game didn't break anything big. The Patriots defense was swarming all over the field.

Plummer: 8/20, 98 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 16.3 QB Rating
Brady: 13/18, 183 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 123.1 QB Rating

Dillon: 20 rushes, 119 yards, 5.9 average, 1 TD, 1 Fumble, Long 56
Bell: 14 rushes, 48 yards, 0 TD, Long 13

Givens: 5 catches, 98 yards, 1 TD
Branch: 5 catches, 63 yards
Rod Smith: 3 catches, 29 yards
Putzier: 2 catches, 40 yards

John Lynch: 7 tackles
D.J. Williams: 3 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, safety
McGinest: 5 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 sack
Gay: 5 tackles

Panthers 13, Bears 6

Jake Delhomme to Steve Smith for the winning touchdown with under a minute to go in the game. The Bears were got across the Panthers 50, but Rex Grossman threw an interception, and that ended the game. (Another example of the horrific computer play calling. If you think the Bears let Grossman throw 25 times when the game is so close the whole game, you're insane.)

Delhomme: 11/20 124 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 69.5 QB Rating
Grossman: 10/25, 172 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 24.5 QB Rating

Davis: 19 rushes, 64 yards, 3.3 average, 0 TD, Long 14
Benson: 10 rushes, 48 yards, 4.8 average, 0 TD, Long 33

Smith: 4 catches, 74 yards, 1 TD
Colbert: 2 catches, 16 yards
Wade: 3 catches, 53 yards
Muhammed: 2 catches, 53 yards

Peppers: 4 tackles, 2 sacks
Gamble: 6 tackles,
Urlacher: 7 tackles, 1 INT, 1 Forced Fumble
Tillman: 6 tackles

Colts 35, Steelers 14

Dominant game by the Colts offense. Their defense made a few big plays too, including a stop on 4th and goal on their own half yard line in the 4th quarter that would have pulled the Steelers to within a touchdown.

Manning: 13/17 , 361 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT, 133.0 QB Rating
Roethlisberger: 9/22 , 167 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 64.0 QB Rating

James: 14 rushes, 53 yards, 3.7 average, 2 TD, Long 22
Bettis: 16 rushes, 66 yards, 4.1 average, 0 TD, Long 13

Stokley: 7 catches, 229 yards, 2 TD
Harrison: 2 catches, 53 yards, 1 TD
Ward: 3 catches, 92 yards
Randel El: 2 catches, 21 yards, 1 TD

Freeney: 2 tackles, 1 sack
Morris: 6 tackles, 1 tackle for loss
Hope: 5 tackles
Porter: 2 tackels, 1 tackle for loss

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And XBox Madden Says...

Well, since I am "working" from home today, I figured I'd be productive.. By playing out the Seahawks-Redskins game on XBox Madden, and then running a few simulations...

For the first game, I actually controlled the Seahawks.. and dominated... Final Score: Seahawks 41, Redskins 6. Here's the game diary I kept while actually playing:

Redskins win the coin toss, choose to receive.

A few plays into their drive, Portis fumbles, the ball knocked loose and recovered by linebacker D.D. Lewis. But the play is challenged by the Skins, and overturned. The Skins get the ball back. Huge tackle for a loss on 3rd and inches by Tatupu on the Seattle 15. Field goal attempt... good.. 22 yarder.
6 plays, 72 yards. Redskins 3, Seahawks 0.

Seattle marches down the field, mixing run and pass. 3rd and goal from the 9.... Slant in to Jackson, TD, just barely breaking the plane.
Ack! Missed extra point! That could come back to haunt the Seahawks later on...
9 plays, 63 yards. Seahawks 6, Redskins 3.

Redskins, 3 and out. Punt to the Seattle 26.

After a big run by Alexander, a little curl to the TE Stevens is picked off when LaVarr Arrington jumps like 10 feet in the air and grabs the pass. The real Hasselbeck never makes that throw. Sadly, I didn't see the bastard hidden behind the blocking at the offensive line. Skins take over at the 50.

Defense holds though. 2 Portis runs and an incomplete pass by Brunell on 3rd and 2, and the Skins are punting again. Damn good punt, out of bounds at the 2... Long field for Seattle...

Seattle gets a decent drive going, and find themselves at their own 46 on 3rd and 1. Handoff Alexander, but he stuttersteps a second too long in the backfield and gets stopped short. Dammit, I was playing like the old Alexander on that play, thinking about trying to get the big gain rather than just powering forward and getting the first down. PS - the REAL Alexander has been perfect on 3rd down and short this season, something like 12 for 12. It's 4th down and inches at midfield... I consider going for it for a moment, then remember this is the playoffs! Punt angled for the corner, but I didn't quite get it as close as I wanted. Out of bounds at the 14. Skins take over there with 59 seconds left in the half.

3 and out (again) for the Skins. Seattle takes a timeout, and returns the punt back to their own 48 with 24 seconds and two timeouts remaining. Could be enough time to get in range for a long field goal.

First play.... Redskins blitz, Seahawks pick it up... Jeramy Stevens slipped past the blitzing linebackers, and Hasselbeck hits him on a short flag route.. down the sideline he goes, tiptoeing along the line as a safety dives at him and misses! The 30... the 20... the 10... touchdown! 52 yard touchdown. This time, Josh Brown doesn't miss the extra point. Seahawks 13, Redskins 3.

Redskins take the kickoff and run the ball twice, ending the half.

Halftime score: Seahawks 13, Redskins 3.

First Half Stats:
Seattle - 39 yards rushing, 137 yards passing, 7 first downs, 1 turnover.
Washington - 40 yards rushing, 36 yards passing, 5 first downs, 0 turnovers.

Seattle receives the second half kickoff, and could put themselves in a nice position by scoring here.

Good kickoff return by Maurice Morris, all the way back to the Seattle 46. A steady dose of Alexander with a few short passes mixed in, and it's soon 20-3. Alexander breaks off a 15-yard TD run, offtackle left, set up by a nice block by Mack Strong on LaVarr Arrington. This could be getting ugly, folks.

Ridiculous catch downfield by Chris Cooley on 3rd and 10. He was even double covered. Oh well, that happens sometimes. The defense holds in the red zone again (like it has all year), and John Hall kicks another short field goal. Seahawks 20, Redskins 6.

On 3rd and 3, Alexander comes up a yard short for the first down. As the crowd is chanting "Go Go Go Go Go!" to go for it on 4th down (and yes, they really were doing that in the game), the punt team trotted on. Long but low punt fielded by Santana Moss at their own 10... He's hit hard by backup linebacker (and Harvard graduate) Isaish Kacyvenski. Fumble! Mack Strong (who would no way be playing special teams) picks up the fumble. Seattle ball at the Skins 16! Uh oh, wait.. Joe Gibbs throws out the challenge flag. This time the call on the field stands! Seahawks ball looking to put the Skins away for good.

5 plays later... Touchdown, Seahawks! Akexander left from 8 yards out. That missed extra point is long since forgotten. Seahawks 27, Redskins 6.

Did I say 27-6? I mean 34-6. Michael Boulware picks off a Mark Brunell pass intended for Santana Moss and takes it back 52 yards the other way for the score. Quite a day for the Seattle defense!

And, just to seal the deal.. Mack Strong takes it in from 6 yards out to make it 41-6. I was really just trying to kill the clock, but they just couldn't stop Alexander. Hell, I gave the ball to Strong hoping he'd be slow enough for them to tackle, but no such luck. And to add insult to injury, Marcus Trufant picks off a Brunell pass he throws a few downfield as the clock ticks away.

Final Stats:
Total Offense: Seattle 309, Washington 177
Rushing Yards: Seattle 152, Washington 57
Passing Yards: Seattle 157, Washington 120
Turnovers: Seattle 1, Washington 3
3rd Down Conversions: Seattle 5/7, Washington 4/10
Time Of Possession: Seattle 11:42, Washington 8:18

Key Players:
Matt Hasselbeck: 13/17, 157 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 118.9 QB Rating

Mark Brunell: 8/17, 129 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 33.3 QB Rating

Clinton Portis: 18 rushes, 52 yards, 2.8 average, 0 TD, Long 11

Shaun Alexander: 25 rushes, 141 yards, 5.6 average, 2 TD, Long 22

Darrell Jackson: 5 catches, 49 yards, 1 TD
Jerramy Stevens: 3 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD

Chris Cooley: 3 catches, 58 yards, 0 TD
Santana Moss: 2 catches, 28 yards, 0 TD

Lofa Tatupu: 7 tackles, 2 tackles for loss
Leroy Hill: 7 tackles, 2 sacks
Marcus Trufant: 4 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 INT
Michael Boulware: 3 tackls, 1 INT, 1 TD

Lemar Marshall: 8 tackles, 2 tackles for loss
Lavar Arrington: 4 tackles, 1 INT

After that I ran a simulation of the game. Redskins won in OT 24-21. The Seattle play calling was awful though. Alexander got the ball 7 times the whole game. Yes, 7 times. Hasselbeck was somehow sacked 8 times. And the defense played Cover 2 with the Skins on their own 5 with under a minute left on third and goal. Brunell had about 20 seconds to find an open receiver. No pressure at all...

Anyways, running Pats-Broncos now for Anonymous.. Check back a bit later for the results. ;)

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Divisional Round Picks

We're down to 8 teams left! And after this weekend, it'll be the NFL's Final Four! Can you feel the excitement? Can you?

Well, it's time for our picks! I hope to continue my perfect playoff record, but really I just want Seattle to win its damn game. Just win at least one playoff game, please? Is that too much to ask?

The big topic around the Samichlaus household on Monday was astonishing success Mr. St. Ides had last weekend. I'm not making this up. His 4 - 0 weekend was both a item of pride for our little blog site while stoking enough professional jealousy to get my competitive embers fired up. Realistically though, you must agree you caught a break when Carson Palmer got knocked out of the Cinci - Pittsburgh game on the second play.

Let me also for the record state that St. Ides had these to me on Thursday. For our now apparantly ravaging fans, I apologize for the delay. I also suggest you visit the following web site ASAP: http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/. They were even nice enough to put your name in their URL.

Here's also a quirky thing to note: All 4 of these matchups happened already during the regular season. The results are included in each breakdown. (Notice all the home teams won. And the only game to switch locations is the Skins-Hawks game.)

St. Ides
Last Week: 4-0

Samichlaus
Last Week: 2-2

Redskins +9.5 over SEAHAWKS
Previously met in Week 4 at Washington: Redskins 20-17 (OT)
When this spread opened at 9 points, I was like "Wow, that's a lot of points for a playoff game. It'll settle in around 6 or so by the end of the week." Here we are on Thursday, and it's still 9. I guess enough people think Seattle will crush the Redskins. You can read my entire in-depth longass breakdown of why the Seahawks _should_ win this game in the previous piece. For those of you with shorter attention spans it comes down to 3 things really: 1) The Seattle offense is too good and too balanced to be shut down for an entire game, 2) The Seattle defense is better than most of the numbers show and can most likely keep the average (and beat up) Redskins offense under wraps, and 3) home field advantage. I'm going to take the points, because I can't imagine a blowout. I hope it is, I really hope it's 35-3 at halftime so I can relax a bit, but I get the feeling I'm going to be nervous until the clock has all zeroes on it. Seahawks 23, Redskins 17.

Even the local Redskin biased press is saying the Skins don't have a chance in hell. St. Ides has disected this game as well as anyone could in his previous thesis, err, blog. In fact it was such a well thought out arguement that I've decided to pull the trigger and take the Seahawks. The excruciatingly loud crowd coupled with two and a half weeks of rest will turn the Seahawks into raging Ostriches. On an interesting side note, a local Seattle paper is limiting the use of the word "Redskins" to once per article, the reason being the potential offensive nature of the racially charged moniker. Which made me think: I'll bet somewhere out west, some idiot might read "Seattle is playing Washington" and think "But I thought Seattle was IN Washington!" Seahawks 34 Redskins 17

Patriots +3.5 over BRONCOS
Previously met in Week 6 at Denver: Broncos 28-20
With the injuries to Drew Bress and Carson Palmer, guess who's going to the Pro Bowl… Yes, that's right, the one, the only Jake Plummer. Plummer did have a pretty amazing season, especially considering his lack of interceptions. Generally the knock against Plummer is that he makes bad decisions, allows too many turnovers, and can't win the big game. Well, he's taken care of the first two of those this season. Can he complete the hat trick and knock off the defending champs this weekend? I don't think so. Belichek will have a gameplan to force him into mistakes. And let's face it, he's still Jake Plummer. The Broncos will need to play near perfect ball on both sides to win this, and I don't see it happening. The Patriots are rolling now, and their confidence has got to be high. Plus, doesn't everybody want to see a Colts-Pats AFC Title Game? I know I sure as hell do. Patriots 23, Broncos 20.

When the Patriots played the Broncos in week six I swear that their secondary was running around wearing those "Hello! My name is...." tags. Who were those guys? This week is going to be different. The Patriots sent notice last week, and I know this is cliche, but New England knows how to win playoff football. What makes this game intriguing is Denver's propensity for home victories. Denver expects to win at home, period. In the end though I can not bet against the champs. Fool me once shame on you, fool me eleven times shame on me. This will be a close game but New England wins outright... Patriots 24 Broncos 23

COLTS -9.5 over Steelers
Previously met in Week 12 at Indy: Colts 26-7
Steelers were impressive last week, but it was the Bengals they were up against and Carson Palmer did get knocked out on his second snap. I still think they would have won even it Palmer played the whole game, but that was mostly because the Bengals are a young team with no playoff experience. The Colts have a lot of pressure on them, but I think they have enough talent to get it done and at least get past the Steelers. I mean, how much would it suck if the Patriots did their part to set up the huge AFC Title game, and then the Colts choke and lose? Although Peyton is probably having some flashbacks of playoff choke jobs after watching Eli stink it up last week. The Colts just have too many offensive weapons, and their defense is improved enough this year to not always get into 37-35 shootouts with teams. Colts 27, Steelers 16.

Palmer wouldn't have missed those long passes that Kitna was missing.... OK, I have to let go of the anger. You smoked me fair and square last week. I like the Steelers and the points. They're healthy, can play ball control, and have a good D. The only thing they can't do is win this game. Colts 34 Steelers 28

BEARS -3.5 over Panthers
Previously met in Week 11 in Chicago: Bears 13-3
Tough game to call here. Both defenses are pretty dope. Even the Panthers offense looked pretty good last week running over the Giants. Guess what though, the Bears defense is not the Giants defense. You think Urlacher and friends are going to let the Panthers run for 200+ yards against them in Chicago? I don't think so. I also don't see the Bears letting Steve Smith run wild on them. Who the hell is the Panthers' second WR anyways? Do they even need to worry about covering him? Really, the big thing making me a bit hesitant to pick the Bears is Rex Grossman. Young inexperienced QBs have not faired well so far in the playoffs (see Simms, Eli, Leftwich). In their previous matchup, it was a ridiculous defensive battle, with the only touchdown coming on a 8-yard drive after an interception return. Expect more of the same, with Rex Grossman doing just enough to keep the Bears slightly ahead. Bears 13, Panthers 9.

Cautionary advice: I am a Packers fan, so my vision here might be a bit predjudiced. I'm still not sold on the Bears. And why oh why did Lovie Smith sit Rex Grossman the last game of the season? Did he honestly think Grossman has played too much and needed the rest? Anyway, the Panthers (who I do like) impressed me thoroughly against the Giants. Say what you want about the appropriateness of Tikik Barber's post game comments but they were essentially correct. The Giants were outcoached. John Fox is fast becomming my favorite coach other than the great Mike McCarthy who... God, I can't even type that in a joke.... anyway, I have to go to work so let me curtail this... Panthers 20 Bears 10.

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Should you shoot me now or shoot me later?

I woke up this morning to a note from Mrs. Samichlaus that said the following: "Do not pass go. Do not collect $200.00. Go straight to my journal! Yeah baby!" It was there that I read that the Packers had decided upon their new head coach, a guy named Mike McCarthy, who last season was the 49ers Offensive Coordinator. That would be the same 49ers who were competing for the worst record in football the last week of the season. I was moritified.

To exacerbate the situation, I saw this "press photo" on the lead page. This was the first good look I had at the new coach:

Uh oh. My first thought was "I.Q. in the Mike Tice range".

The more I read about McCarthy the more doubts I had. On the positive side, he has the reputation of being a stratight shooter, tell it like it is sort of guy. He hosts an offseason Quarterbacks camp that Seattle's Matt Hasslebeck swears by, and believes in playing young players (almost to a fault: he insisted on playing rookie Alex Smith in San Fransisco over the pedestrian Tim Rattay). On the other hand, he has never been associated with a winning franchise, including Green Bay when he was the quarterbacks coach under the forgetful Ray Rhodes regime. Last season, San Fransisco's offense was ranked dead last.

The more I read, the more the doubts crept in. Despite the best attempts of the Stepfordesque Milwaukee press to spin it, I still wasn't buying into Mike McCarthy.

"Very intense, very intelligent and enthusiastic." Sure, so was my Junior year Latin teacher and no one respected him either.

"He's just a good, solid, down-to-earth guy" Yeah, so was Mike Tice, well until he started scalping Super Bowl tickets.

"McCarthy's father is a retired fireman who later owned a tavern. His parents attended games in New Orleans. Mike used to work in (his fathers) bar. He's from a tough section of Pittsburgh. Bloomfield. Blue-collar all the way. He comes from good stock." Hey, his dad was a fireman AND a bartender? That's like winning the Irish Sweepstakes.

I continued to stuggle with the choice of Mike McCarthy. Is he really the second comming of Mike Tice, or is he in the mold of Philadelphia's Andy Reid as the press has been spinning it. I pondered and waivered and then I came across this:


Oh.

Now I'm happy with the selection.


Note to all SBS fans: Things have picked up again at work, so my day time blogging has been once again curtailed. I will continue to write as often as possible, and yes I am aware that I still owe y'all my Mike Sherman blog, my Marcus Vick blog and a few others too...

Samichlaus

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Why Seattle SHOULD Win This Weekend

In a few days, the Washington Redskins will take the field against the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC Divisional Playoff game. The winner goes to the NFC Conference Championship game. The loser goes home. Depending what you read, the Seahawks are either one of the top 3 teams in the NFL and going to dominate this game, or they're an overrated team who played a weak schedule and they're ready to be upset by the streaking Redskins. Let's take a look at the facts, shall we?

Exhibit A: Week 4 - Redskins 20, Seahawks 17 (OT)
Week 4 was a long time ago, and this was the last game Seattle lost before losing the meaningless game in Green Bay in Week 17. Yes, that's right. They rolled off 11 wins in a row from Week 5 to Week 16. A few blowouts, a few close games. But all wins.

Looking back in that game, Shaun Alexander was "held" to a mere 98 yards on 20 carries and 1 TD. That's 4.9 yards per carry, folks. There were a few things that stood out in this game. First, the Seattle defense was AWFUL on 3rd down, allowing the Skins to keep the chains moving (and their offense off the field) time after time after time. The Redskins 13 for 18 on 3rd down. 13 for 18. 72% success rate. On the season, the Redskins had 42% success on 3rd down. Hasselbeck went 26/38 for 242 yards and 1 TD (no interceptions). Seattle was 6 for 12 on 3rd down. One of the 3rd down conversions for the Redskins came on a key 3rd and long. Brunell threw the ball down the field for Santana Moss, who had to jump for the ball, as it was a bit high. Right behind him, safety Michael Boulware jumped with Moss, and as the ball entered Moss's grip, Boulware poked his hands through and knocked the ball away. Penalty flag. Pass interference, ball spotted inside the Seattle 20, and a TD mere plays later. Replays clearly showed this was an awful call. Boulware did not touch Moss on the way up, he jumped in sync with him, directly behind him, almost touching him, but not. The call was so bad that Holmgren did get an apology from the league a few days later.

Still, despite the defense's inability to get the Skins off the field on 3rd down and this horrendous call, Seattle had a very good chance to win this game. The Redskins defense did a pretty good job of disrupting the rhythm of the offense most of the game, and this offense is all about getting into its rhythm. But when crunch time arrived, they found the rhythm. Trailing 17-10, Seattle took over on their own 9 yard line with about 8 minutes left in the game. Now it wasn't quite a two minute drill since they had a lot of time to work with, but Hasselbeck took the team down the field, converting several 3rd downs and a key 4th down. With 1:23 remaining in the game, he found Darrell Jackson in the end zone for the tying touchdown.

Washington got the ball back, and decided to try and move it down the field. Despite their success on 3rd down all game, they had still only put 17 points on the board. Brunell looked for Clinton Portis for a little dump pass over the middle, but the throw was a little high and behind him. The ball bounced off of Portis' hands, and into the hands of Seattle CB Kelly Herndon. A couple Alexander runs later, and out comes Josh Brown to kick the winning field goal for Seattle. A 47 yarder… hooking… hooking… hooking.. CLANK… off the left upright. No good.

Overtime. The Redskins won the toss, and converted three 3rd downs to drive within range for the winning field goal. Redskins win, 20-17.

Now, that's not what I would exactly call a convincing win. And the game was in DC. This time the game is in Seattle, where the crowd has been so loud at times this year that they forced 9 false starts against the Giants offensive line.

Exhibit B: The Offense
Here's our top 2 offensive players:
Matt Hasselbeck - Top Rated Passer in the NFC (4th in the NFL)
Shaun Alexander - NFL Leading Rusher, Single-Season Touchdown Record Holder, NFL MVP, NFL Offensive Player of the Year

And here's some team numbers:
#2 Overall Offense (was #1 most of the season, the meaningless Green Bay game probably prevented the team from finishing #1)
#3 Rushing Offense
#13 Passing Offense (who has to throw when you're ahead in most games?)
#1 Scoring Offense (28.3 points per game. Yes, more than the Colts)
#7 Turnover Ratio (+9.. Including the 2nd lowest number of turnovers, only 17 all season. That's barely one turnover per game)
#5 Sacks Allowed (27 Sacks Allowed in 474 attempts, or 1 sack every 17.5 attempts)
#1 Offensive TDs (29 rushing, 25 passing, 54 total offensive TDs.. Oh, and for the record, Alexander had more TDs than several entire teams)

Here's my point - the Seattle offense is well-balanced and has many weapons. Both Hasselbeck and Alexander are having the best seasons of their career. Hasselbeck only threw 9 interceptions all year, and only 2 in his last 7 games. (Only Jake Plummer had less among QBs who started the entire season. Jake Plummer?!?!) Brett Favre had 29, more than 3 times as many. (In fairness to Favre and his decimated offense, Eli Manning, Drew Bledsoe, and Aaron Brooks had 17 each, the next closest.)

And you may be tired of hearing it, but a big reason why the Seahawks offense is so good this year comes down to one thing : Blocking. Left tackle Walter Jones, left guard Steve Hutchinson, and fullback Mack Strong all made the All Pro team and are starting in the Pro Bowl. The right side of the line is pretty solid too. And even when teams KNOW the run is coming to the left, they can not stop it. You know how in the old Tecmo Bowl Nintendo game, when there were only 4 plays on offense and defense, and if the defense called the identical play as the offense, the offense would get swarmed and instantly stopped for a loss? That's what the defenses are like when Seattle gets the ball at the goal line. They have the play called. They have the formation they want. And they still can't stop the play. Not only do they blow open holes for Alexander to run through (and by TMQ's unofficial count, was untouched by a defending player on 15 of his 28 touchdowns), but they give Hasselbeck plenty of time to throw. Four man rushes rarely gets through to him. Blitzes are usually picked up well. I know it's not exciting, but the offensive line wins or loses games for teams.

Speaking of TMQ, here's what he had to say about his annual Non-QB Non-RB NFL MVP, an award he gives out every year:
"The Tuesday Morning Quarterback Non-QB Non-RB NFL MVP: Walter Jones, Seattle. There's a reason Alexander led the league in rushing, and that reason is fabulous blocking. There's a reason Alexander had 15 untouched touchdown runs, and that reason is fabulous blocking. There's a reason most of Alexander's record-setting tally of touchdowns occurred when he was running left, and that reason is that the left side of Seattle's line -- Jones at tackle and guard Steve Hutchison -- is fabulous. Repeatedly this season, Jones just leveled the man in front of him, even when the defense expected Alexander to run left: for instance in the Blue Men Group-Eagles game on Monday Night Football. Repeatedly when Alexander broke into the secondary, the very large Jones has hustled to accompany him: Check the tape of Alexander's 52-yard touchdown against Tennessee, Jones made the finishing block 20 yards downfield. And repeatedly, Jones got no help in passing blocking: not needing a back or tight end to help the left tackle freed more targets for the Hawks' passing game. If ever an offensive lineman should have been the NFL MVP, it was this year, and it was Walter Jones."

Now, all that said… sure, a good defense can have a good gameplan and good execution any day of the week and be successful against a good offense. I just don't see it happening with the Redskins, and here's why. Without going into too much depth breaking down the entire Redskins offense, I'll just say that their front four doesn't get a ton of pressure, especially now with their starting tackle out with a fractured arm. They'll need to blitz to get to Hasselbeck, and blitzing too much is not a good idea - as TMQ will tell you, blitzing on defense gets you burnt more times than not. As much press as Alexander has (finally) gotten this season, Seattle uses the pass to set up the run. Quick slants and curls by the WRs, hooks by the TE. High-percentage completion passes. Oh, I almost forgot to mention… Hasselbeck set a record for highest completion percentage in a month for December. Something ridiculous like 73% completions. Anyways, when Seattle gets the ball Saturday, don't be surprised when you see passes on the first 3 or 4 plays. It's all part of their master plan to create some space in the second lair for Alexander to carve up. And you know what - it works.

Exhibit C: The Defense
Wow, this is getting long. I'll try and keep this section short.. This is NOT the same defense we've had the past few years. Rookie middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu was 2nd in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting and was named defensive second captain (whatever that means) for the playoffs. Tackles Marcus Tubbs, Chuck Darby, and Rocky Bernard have been excellent against both the pass and run while working a rotation to stay fresh. Seattle's defense quietly led the entire league with 50 sacks, spreading it out so that no single player had double digits. The only 100 yard rusher they allowed all season long was Tiki Barber, and Tiki needed OT to get over the century mark. (Yes, that includes Clinton Portis, who rushed for 90 yards on 25 attempts in Week 4, a 3.6 average. The Seattle defense was 5th in rushing yards allowed. 25th in passing yards allowed. But that's a bit deceptive. Teams were often behind early and big against Seattle, so they were throwing a lot, and got a lot of passing yardage late in games during garbage time. Teams threw against them a 4th-most 571 times. That's 35 pass attempts per game. That's a lot.

Anyways, here's the most important stat: 7th in points allowed, allowing only 16.9 points per game. During the latter part of the season, announcers and writers were fond of saying they had a "bend but not break" defense. They'd give up yardage, but once the opposing team got into the red zone, they often clamped down and held them to field goals. Points win games, not yardage.

Let's look at the Redskins offense:
Mark Brunell - a 35 year old quarterback who has been up and down all season and has a brace the size of Texas on his knee. He threw for just 41 yards last week. All game. Carson Palmer was in for 2 snaps before injuring his knee, and threw for more yards than Brunell.
Clinton Portis - his outside speed scares me a little, but our defense has been good against the run all year, and haven't given up big plays. I expect him to get the ball a lot, but can't see him suddenly having a breakout game.
Santana Moss - a scary weapon. But who are the other Redskins WRs? Can't name them? Exactly. No reason not to double team Moss. Moss had 6 catches for 87 yards in Week 4.
Chris Cooley - a tight end/fullback type who has recently become more involved in their passing game. As long as a linebacker keeps an eye on him, he's containable.

Oh, and our top 3 CBs are all healthy together for the first time since like Week 3. Trufant, Dyson, and Herndon aren't Pro Bowl names, but they're solid. After going up the Bucanneers defense last weekend, Redskins fans are trumpeting "Our offense is good! The Seahawks defense is no Tampa Bay defense!" I think people underestimate our defense.

Exhibit D: Home Field Advantage

Anybody remember the Giants game? The crowd was deafening. Eli Manning took two timeouts in the first quarter because he couldn't hear himself think. The Giants offensive line had a whopping 9 false starts against them. That's 45 yards right there (more than Brunell threw for last week). The Seattle fans are starting to believe. They will be louder than ever, and if you don't think they'll be even louder this week… well, they will be.

The Redskins were 4-4 on the road this season. Their wins? At Dallas in Week 2 (where Moss had those two long TD catches late to pull out the miraculous win), at Arizona (an unimpressive 17-13 win), at St. Louis (24-9), and at Philly in Week 17 (against a Philly team with nothing to play for, and I think they even had Koy Detmer in at QB for a bit. The Redskins led only 24-20 until a fumble was returned for a TD with 2:16 left in the game to give them the 31-20 win.) Yes, they pulled off the impressive win in Tampa Bay last weekend. It took two Chris Simms interceptions and another fumble returned for a TD to give them the win though.

And how about that flight? Seattle has been resting up, getting healthy, going home every night, and generally focusing on the task at hand for weeks now. The Redskins have been battling for their playoff lives, getting even more banged up, and traveling from Washington to Tampa back to Washington then to Seattle. Seattle is a pretty long flight from Washington and has a timezone difference that can sometimes cause a little jet lag. Going from East to West is a bit easier than going from West to East (where 1pm EST games start at 10am PST), but it'll still effect the body. Sure, the Redskins are professionals and have done it before, right? Well, maybe. Their only game in the Pacific Time Zone was at Arizona. So they're not exactly used to it.

Anyways, that's my case. Is it convincing enough to think Seattle should win on Saturday? I think so. Am I still nervous? Well, yeah, anything can happen on any day in the NFL. Really, as long as the offense holds onto the ball, I don't see the Redskins outscoring this team. I'll give you my prediction right now anyways: Seahawks 23, Redskins 17.

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Upon Further Review - Wildcard Weekend!

Well, we did this review stuff fairly inconsistently during the season, but figure it's easy to pick it up again during the playoffs since there's so few games to look at… And this week, I'd like to look more closely at my incorrect picks… Oh wait, there were none! That's right folks, St. Ides is off to a red-hot postseason start, going 4-0 this past weekend with his picks. But let's talk about them anyways…

St. Ides said: Redskins +3.5 over BUCANNEERS, 18-20
Actual Score: Redskins 17-10

I REALLY wanted to take the Skins, but didn't want to take 3 road teams to win outright, but I did take the points. (Even though 3 road teams DID wind up winning outright.) Here's the key quote:
"I think Simms is probably more turnover prone than Brunell, but only slightly." I should have written a bit more about how playoff games usually come down to the QB, and it was the case here too. Simms threw two key picks, including one to kill their chances of forcing OT on the final drive. Both balls were tipped at the line, but that's still got to be pinned on him. Anyways, now the Redskins go to Seattle for the Divisional Round game on Saturday, but we'll save analysis of that one for later in the week.

St. Ides said: PATRIOTS -7.5 over Jaguars, 24-13
Actual Score: Patriots 28-3
Here's some stuff I said that seems about right: "They're putting Byron Leftwich back in at QB, and it's not much of a stretch to say he'll be rusty. That rust could result in a turnover or two early which puts them playing from behind all game, and pretty much done. The Jaguars defense didn't impress me much, and some predictions that they'd be a great no-name defense seems a bit off."
What I failed to mention is how Fred Taylor wouldn’t do jack in this game. Leftwich wasn't awful, but he surely didn't make any big plays to put the team in position to win.

St. Ides said: Carolina +2.5 over GIANTS, 20-16
Actual Score: Panthers 23-0
I won't quote the whole thing I wrote, you can go look it up if you really want, but I was pretty dead on here. Except I expected the Giants to at least get on the damn scoreboard. And the Manning tradition continues, like so: "I believe it is the fate of Eli Manning to follow in the foosteps of his brother at this point: look pretty good during the regular season, and then choke in the playoffs." On one hand, I'm glad the Giants are gone because I hate Shockey so damn much. On the other hand, I would have liked to have beaten them ourselves, as Eli surely would have played even worse on the road. And the Panthers scare me a little. In fact, even before this past weekend, Jake Delhomme was the only NFC QB that I think scares me. He still is.

St. Ides said: Steelers -3.5 over BENGALS, 27-24
Actual Score: Steelers 31-17
Obviously, the whole complexion of this game changed once Carson Palmer went out with that knee injury, and former Seahawk Jon Kitna came in. He didn't play horribly, but it just wasn't going to get it done. Here's what I said before the game: "I do like the Bengals offense, but they're still pretty young and inexperienced. And the Bengals defense isn't exactly great. Look for the Bus to carry a few people into the end zone, and for Big Ben to continue to make me regret calling him an over-hyped Trent Dilfer."
That's pretty much what happened, the Bengals defense just couldn't keep it together. And did you see that trick play with the direct snap to Randel-El, who threw it back across the field to Big Ben, who threw it 40 yards for the TD? That was the nail in the proverbial coffin for the Bengals. Tough break about Palmer, but I don't think they would have won this game even with him in.

Anyways, next week gives us:
Washington +9.5 at Seattle
New England +3.5 at Denver
Pittsburgh +9.5 at Indy
Carolina +3.5 at Chicago

Winners go to the Conference Championship Games, losers go home. Look for more analysis all week, especially taking a closer look at Seattle's chances.

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Playoff Time! Wildcard Picks

It's playoff time!!!

Wild Card Weekend. I love this time of year, and am an extra notch of excited for two reasons: 1) Seattle being the #1 seed in the NFC and having their best shot in franchice history of making the Super Bowl and 2) the excellent assortment of college bowl games these past few days, capped by an excellent title game.

We'll wipe our records clean for the playoffs. But here's the final standings:

Samichlaus
Last Week: 7-9
Season: 130-125

St. Ides
Last Week: 9-7
Season: 125-130

Completely opposite records. But only 5 games apart. However, that 5 games is the difference between winning and losing money on the season. So nice job to my partner, who beat me… This time.. I'll just have to go perfect in the playoffs to even it up.

Thanks for the accolades partner! You made a great run during the second half, and at one point had me giving serious consideration to simply maing the exact same picks as you just to preserve my lead, but where's the fun in that? That's like those guys who constantly rotate pitchers in the fantasy leagues.

Oh, and congratulations to the NFL's MVP Shawn Alexander who narrowly beat Peyton Manning for the honor. Alexander's award insures that Brett Favre will remain the only three time MVP winner for at least another year.

Oh yeah, I wanted to mention that too, thanks for reminding me! Shaun Alexander won the NFL MVP award. Good for him, he deserved it. I also feel extra specially vindicated cause morons like Peter King and Dr. Z were hyping Tom Brady and Tiki Barber (who finished 3rd and 4th behind Alexander and Manning).

Redskins +3.5 over BUCANNEERS
When these two teams played during the regular season, it was a gutsy call by Gruden to go for 2 points at the end of the game that won the game by one point. So these two teams are pretty evenly matched. I'd say the Skins have a slightly better offense, but the Bucs have a more opportunistic defense. Plus, Mark Brunell has been to the playoffs before. Chris Simms is still young, and really in his first extended role as a starting QB. Just because Mark Brunell has been there before doesn't mean he's played well. And I think the Tampa defense can keep the Skins offense in check. Really, their only WR who catches the ball is Santana Moss, and I think Ronde Barber can keep him relatively quiet. Here's a cliché for you: This game will come down to turnovers. I think Simms is probably more turnover prone than Brunell, but only slightly. I don't want to take 3 road teams to win outright, so I'll say the Bucs hang on to win, but just barely. Bucs 20, Skins 18.

I like the Redskins too, but I think the Skins go into Tampa and pull off the upset win. There is no team with more momentum going into the playoffs than the Skins, winners of their last 5 in a row. Their defense is one of the best in the business and will have no problems shutting down the inexperienced Simms. Conversely, St. Ides brings up several good points. The key matchup between Ronde Barber and Santana Moss leans towards Barber, but the real star for Washington will be Clinton Portis. I imagine Portis will bust a few hefty runs, just enough to soften Tampa's defense and give the Skins the win. Washington 24 Tampa Bay 17

PATRIOTS -7.5 over Jaguars
Anonymous pointed out that nobody is giving the Jaguars a chance in this game, and the spread is too big. I think he's simply trying my good ol' "reverse jinx" trick. I'm not biting. They're putting Byron Leftwich back in at QB, and it's not much of a stretch to say he'll be rusty. That rust could result in a turnover or two early which puts them playing from behind all game, and pretty much done. The Jaguars defense didn't impress me much, and some predictions that they'd be a great no-name defense seems a bit off. Plus, people make a big deal about soft schedules of Seattle and Chicago, here's some of the teams the Jags have beaten: Houston (twice), Tennessee (twice), Baltimore, Arizona, the Jets, San Fran, Cleveland, and St. Louis. That's 10 frickin games right there (TEN) that were against pretty bad teams. They did somehow manage to beat Seattle, Cinci, and Pittsburgh, but that was early on, in Weeks 1, 4, and 5. Meanwhile, the Pats have gotten healthy, Dillon and Faulk are back to give their running game some life, and Tom Brady is spouting off about "disrespect" again. Yes, they are the champs until someone else beats them. The Jags don't get it done. Patriots 24, Jaguars 13.

Leftwich seals the deal on this one. If the Jags had any chance of keeping it close, they don't any more. Rest makes rust and Byron's going to look like the Tin Man after the snow storm. I think you're right about Anonymous's "reverse jinx". The point is why? New England is going to dominate this game on both sides of the ball. I'll take the Patriots. Patriots 31 Jaguars 6

Carolina +2.5 over GIANTS
I believe it is the fate of Eli Manning to follow in the foosteps of his brother at this point: look pretty good during the regular season, and then choke in the playoffs. Of course, of late, it's debatable if he's even looked pretty good in the regular season. His accuracy is a bit off. He seems to have the happy feet when he feels pressure. Shockey is banged up. Teams will be stacking the line against Tiki. And then there's their defense. Something like their top 5 linebackers are out, to the point where they signed the 72-year old Roman Phifer. Their only hope is to pressure Delhomme constantly from the ends, something they can do. But DeShaun Foster has looked better running the ball of late, and none of the Giants corners will be able to contain Steve Smith. This could get ugly is the Giants give up an early turnover or two. A lot of Giants fans have been mouthing off saying how they'll kick Seattle's ass in the rematch. Worry about the Panthers first, peoples. Panthers 20, Giants 16.

They signed Roman Pfifer? What, Dick Butkis was unavailable? OK, I like the Giants in this game. Now, I'm not taking anything away from the Panthers, who I like a lot, but the Giants have been literally blowing people up on the line of scrimmage. If there was an MVP award for the second half of the season, Tiki Barber would win it. I have never seen a more dominating second half of a season. With that said, I think the Gints win by a field goal against a very well coached team. Giants 23 Panthers 20

Steelers -3.5 over BENGALS
The Bengals are GETTING points at home in the playoffs?!? That can only mean one thing - Vegas thinks the Steelers are going to SMOKE them. And you know what, I tend to agree. They've gotten hot down the stretch, their defense is playing well, and they want a bit of revenge against the Bengals. The Bengals were confident a few weeks ago, but sort of limped into the playoffs with a couple unimpressive outings. I do like the Bengals offense, but they're still pretty young and inexperienced. And the Bengals defense isn't exactly great. Look for the Bus to carry a few people into the end zone, and for Big Ben to continue to make me regret calling him an over-hyped Trent Dilfer. Steelers 27, Bengals 24.

Oh yeah, I forgot about that Rothelisberger - Dilfer comparison. Whoopsie. I can't believe that the Bengals are going to lose this game, what with the best young quarterback in football. Just a thought: did Boomer Esiason simply forget about Big Ben when he made that analysis? Anyway, I like Pittsburgh a lot but in the end I'm taking the home team and the points: Bengals 24 Steelers 20

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Texas Longhorns - National Champions

Hell of a game last night. The Texas Longhorns came from behind late to knock off the USC Trojans in their bid to win their 3rd National Championship in a row. (Well, technically, their second and a half.. Two years ago they split it, something the BCS was supposed to prevent.) Great game. But really, the Trojans should have won the game. Why didn't they? Because Pete Carroll is not a good coach.

Yes, that's right. I said it. He was not a good coach in the NFL. He still is not a good coach in college. He's gotten by on talent, and talent alone for these past 3 years. How often has a USC game been so close that a coaching decision decided the game? How about never. Until last night.

USC had the ball up by 5 with less than 3 minutes left, and the ball near mid-field. Texas has all 3 timeouts, but it is first down. Run for 3 yards on first down. 2nd and 7. The next call is a little play action screen, except the pressure on Leinart is a bit much, and he throws it short, clanging to the ground, stopping the clock, and saving Texas a timeout. Mistake number 1. Now 3rd and 7, they run the ball again, this time for 5 yards. Timeout Texas, they have 2 remaining. 2:13 left in the game. (And let me remind you there's no two minute warning in college.) 4th and 2. Punt, right? Yes, Vince Young has been virtually unstoppable the whole game, but even they punt it through the end zone, that gives him an additional 30 yards he has to cover. But no, Carroll decides to go for it. Mistake number 2. And this wasn't a short 2 yards either, it was a long 2. Handoff to LenDale White, the whole Texas team saw it coming, and he's stuffed. Clock stops, and Texas takes over at mid-field with 2:09 left in the game.

Now, Vince Young has killed your defense all game (he finished with exactly 200 yards rushing and 267 yards passing). He's running ridiculous plays at this point, including QB draws from the shotgun into a blitz, and he's getting through for yardage on just about every play. He's doing a Michael Vick impersonation, but like 10 times better than the real thing. And what is one strategy for stopping Vick that works pretty effectively? Take your best linebacker, and have him play "spy" on the QB. He doesn't blitz and get lost in the offensive line. He doesn't bite on that running back out of the backfield acting like he's going to catch a screen in the flat. Just frickin SPY on Young. Shadow him on the other side of the line. If he runs, you don't even have to make the tackle, just slow him down enough to get help. I thought of this somewhere around the 3rd quarter, wondering why neither Keith Jackson or Dan Fouts even mention this. I'm baffled that Pete Carroll and his staff don't even seem to consider this tactic. Mistake number 3.

So, la la la, look at me, I'm Vince Young and nobody is assigned to me, I do my thing, and march down the frickin field to score the go ahead touchdown, a scramble into the end zone on 4th and 5 from the 10 when all his receivers are covered. Not a single USC defender came close to him as he casually strolled into the end zone. Texas now leads by 1 with 19 seconds left. As they celebrate a bit on the sideline, my immediate thought is "go for 2." There's not a lot of time left, but getting 2 puts them up by 3, just in case USC somehow gets close enough for a field goal attempt. So after some brief discussion they line up for 2. Which somehow, some way, seems to have confused USC. Who take their 3rd and final timeout. Before a two point conversion. With the clock stopped, and remaining stopped until the kickoff. Mistake number 4. Young does the same frickin play he's done a dozen times this game, and runs the QB draw in for the conversion. Texas up by 3.

Now I'm thinking, "Hey, USC can do this. They have the offense to get within field goal range. We could see overtime! That would be great! Yes, I want some OT baby! This game deserves some OT!" So Texas is lining up for the kickoff, and USC has Reggie Bush back to return the kick, the man many media people are hyping as the best (or "most exciting") college football player ever. Ever. No way Texas is kicking the ball right to him. I know that. You know that. The announcers know that. Somehow, Pete Carroll does not know that. There's Bush, standing around his own 5, waiting for a long kickoff. And here comes the squib kick. A bulky (and slow) tight end grabs it around the 25 and rumbles for all of 5 yards. Not once does he look back or even consider somehow trying to get the ball to Bush. How about a lateral, folks? It's not that hard to get the ball to your best playmaker on a kickoff. Ugh. Mistake number 5.

Ball on their own 30 with about 12 seconds or so left, no timeouts. But the clock stops when they move the chains for a first down. They need to realistically go about 40 yards or so for a chance at the tying field goal. It doesn't look good. On first down, Leinart drops back, somehow there's a bit of pressure despite Texas only rushing 4 and playing the Ultra Prevent defense. He drops it off to Bush who runs 26 yards to the Texas 43, and gets out of bounds. Now there's like 7 or 8 seconds left. (Somehow, I can't find a game log with the actual timestamp of time remaining.) But it was definitely have enough time for two plays if they're quick. 10-15 yards gives them a shot. So what does Leinart do? Scrambles around looking way downfield. Until he finally throws towards the sidelines as time expires. Over the guy's head, game over.

Hell of a game by Vince Young and Texas. Not so great clutch performance by Leinart and Bush. And definitely not a good coaching job by Carroll. Mark my words, with Bush and Leinart gone next year, USC will not be in a BCS game. The talent won't be there to overcome poor coaching decisions.

One more thing. The comment of the night, from legendary announcer Keith Jackson as they went to a commercial: "This is one doobie." Doobie?! I'm pretty sure Mr. Jackson meant "doozie" like "a doozie of a game." But he said "doobie." Funny stuff.

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A Look Back at Pre-Season Predictions

Soooo. How'd the "experts" do predicting the division winners and playoff teams? Let's take a look, shall we? (Because I love any opportunity I can get to bash these so-called "experts)... I didn't do so great either, but at least I didn't do anything ridiculous as predict the Lions as NFC North champs. Sheesh.

The nice thing about a blog like this, I can go back and easily find old stuff I wrote... As wrong as I may have been at times...

St. Ides NFC Predictions
NFC West: Seahawks
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Panthers
Wild Card Teams: Rams and Packers

So I went 2 for 6. Not great, but wait til you see how the "experts" did. I also correctly predicted that the Cardinals would suck, despite a lot of people picking them as a good sleeper team. I also got Carolina's record exactly right (11-5), as well as Atlanta (8-8), including this dead on comment on the Falcons: "I think people are still ridiculously blinded by Michael Vick's "highlight film" plays than the fact that he is a very ineffective passer. He's got a year of the West Coast offense under his belt, but I just don’t think he's smart enough to understand it." And yet, somehow, Mr. Vick is going to the Pro Bowl.

St. Ides AFC Predictions:
AFC East: Patriots
AFC West: Chiefs
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Colts
Wild Card Teams: Chargers and Bills

2 for 6 again, though the Chargers and Chiefs now seem like better picks than the Vikings, Eagles, Packers, or Rams. Ouch. I did have the Steelers and Jaguars just barely missing the playoffs. And maybe I was wrong about Big Ben. We'll see this coming week in Cinci. I didn't get any of the records exactly right in the AFC, oh well. 4 out of 12 overall, or 33% accuracy. Pretty crappy.

So now that I look like I suck, let's take a look at what those who do this for a living said.. Back in the day, I made a blog entry noting all the predictions, just for this purpose.

Here's the not-so-pretty breakdown from the ESPN crew:
NFC East: Eagles 11, Cowboys 1
NFC West: Rams 7, Cardinals 3, Seahawks 2
NFC North: Vikings 12
NFC South: Panthers 8, Falcons 3, Saints(?!?) 1

AFC West: Chargers 5,Chiefs 3, Raiders 3, Broncos 1
AFC East: Patriots 10, Jets 2
AFC North: Ravens 7, Steelers 5
AFC South: Colts 12

Overall ESPN Score: 25/96 (and 22 of those correct picks were the slam dunk Patriots and Colts picks). 26% correct.

SI's Dr. Z (who I loathe)
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Panthers
NFC West: Rams
Wild card: Cowboys and Falcons

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Chiefs
Wild card: Jets and Steelers

Overall Dr. Z Score: 4 out of 12. 33%. Damn, he tied me. Though the combined record of his teams is FAR worse than mine.

SI's Peter King (who I usually hate, because he's so ridiculously biased towards the Giants, oh, and he says some dumb things like how teams should be penalized when the crowd makes too much noise)
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Panthers
NFC West: Rams
Wild card: Cowboys and Falcons

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Steelers
AFC South: Jaguars
AFC West: Chargers
Wild card: Bills and Colts

Overall Peter King Score: 4 out of 12 again, though he had the Steelers and Jags as division champs instead of wild card teams. He had the exact same (awful) NFC picks as his friend the Doctor.

3 more SI Guys:
NFC East: Eagles 3
NFC North: Vikings 2, Lions(?!?) 1
NFC South: Panthers 3
NFC West: Rams 1, Seahawks 1, Cardinals 1
Wild card: Falcons 3, Lions 2, Vikings 1

AFC East: Patriots 3
AFC North: Ravens 2, Bengals 1
AFC South: Colts 3
AFC West: Chargers 1, Chiefs 1, Broncos 1
Wild card: Jets 3, Steelers 1, Broncos 1

Overall SI Score: 14/36… 39%, the best yet! Including someone finally picking Seattle to win the division, and someone liking the Broncos. 3 picks for the Lions to make the playoffs though?!?

And, still my favorite NFL writer, TMQ from NFL.com:
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Buccaneers
NFC West: Seahawks
Wild card: Rams and Falcons

AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Bengals
AFC South: Colts
AFC West: Chargers
Wild card: (Doesn't say, but has Chiefs, Jags, and Steelers all at 10-6, so he got 2 right there!)

Overall TMQ Score: 6.5/12 (I'll give him half a point for not clarifying which two AFC teams were the wild card.) The best by far! Including nailing the NFC South, NFC West, and AFC North with unpopular picks. He remains my favorite writer.

Final Regular Season Predictions Standings:
TMQ: 54%
SI: 39%
St. Ides: 33%
Dr. Z: 33%
Peter King: 33%
ESPN: 26%

As for the playoffs, here's what the experts predicted:
AFC Champion:
Colts - 9 votes
Patriots - 7 votes
Steelers - 1 vote

NFC Champion:
Vikings - 5 votes
Panthers - 4 votes
Eagles - 3 votes
Falcons - 3 votes
Rams - 1 vote
Redskins - 1 vote

All the AFC picks alive, but only 5 of the 17 NFC picks have a shot, and all of those as a Wild Card team. Notice nobody picked Seattle as the possible NFC Champ… I know someone who did though.. Me… We'll check out my post-season predictions sometime soon. ;)

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